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Exit Polls predict BJP victory in most States

by | Mar 8, 2022 | India

Many Exit Polls predict a BJP victory in many States, and if the exit polls have their way, Yogi Adityanath will be right back in Lucknow in charge of affairs in the largest state in the country. The exit polls were also sure of an AAP government in Punjab.  According to the India-Today-Axis Poll, the […]

Many Exit Polls predict a BJP victory in many States, and if the exit polls have their way, Yogi Adityanath will be right back in Lucknow in charge of affairs in the largest state in the country. The exit polls were also sure of an AAP government in Punjab. 

According to the India-Today-Axis Poll, the ruling BJP will get between 288 to 326 seats in UP, while its rival the SP alliance will get just 71 to 101 seats. The BSP this time, according to the India-Today-Axis Poll will get just 3 to 9 seats while the Congress will be reduced to 1 to 3 seats, while others will pick up 2 to 3 seats.

The Times Now-Veto Poll gives the BJP 225 seats, the SP alliance 151, the BSP 14, the Congress 9 and others 4. 

News 24-Chanakya Polls predicts that the saffron party will get as many as 294 seats, while the Opposition alliance led by the SP will secure 105 seats, while the BSP, Congress and others will get 2, 1 and 1 seats respectively.

The other pollster to predict the outcome of the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh is the ABP-C Voter Poll. According to the poll, the ruling alliance will get between 228 and 244 seats, while the SP alliance will get between 132 and 148 seats. The BSP is predicted to get between 13 to 21 seats, the Congress between 4 and 8, while others will get between 2 and 6 seats.

If the BJP returns to power as predicted by exit polls, it will be the first time that a party would have returned to power after completing a full term. Such an eventuality is also likely to enhance the status of chief minister Yogi Adityanath, setting him up as the prime ministerial candidate for 2024.

Meanwhile the last phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh ended with the just 57.5% voting. This is in contrast to the 59.56% polling witnessed in 2017 —  another low. The polls extended over nine districts and 54 constituencies in the Purvanchal region of the state. There are 613 candidates in the fray. 

The polling percentage having gone down, the reasons for the decline could be attributed to factors like the ongoing pandemic and menfolk having gone to other states as labourers, and the fact that almost 11 million voters were added to the rolls in this phase alone. Thus, while the percentage of voting might have come down, the numbers in absolute terms has gone up.

Rallies and Numbers

Even though the finally tally will only be known on counting day, which is on March 10, if exit poll predictions are anything to go by, the number of rallies the frontline leaders of the contending political parties undertook does not seem to have any bearing on the outcome. In a report in the Indian Express, Lalmani Verma says that Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi held the most number of rallies at 209, while the BJP’s Yogi Adityanath held 203 rallies, opposition contender for the chief ministerial post  the SP’s Akhilesh Yadav held 131 rallies across the state. The Dalit icon and BSP supremo Mayawati held only 18 rallies in the state. 

Punjab: Another Congress Mess Up

The big four exit polls gives the Congress 19-31 (India Today-Axis), 22 (Times Now-Veto), 10 (News 24-Chanakya), and 22-28 (ABP-CVoter). In a house of 117 seats, that leaves the ruling Congress in the Opposition benches.  The winner, according to all the exit polls is the Aam Aadmi Party with 76-90 being predicted by India-Today-Axis, 70 (Times Now-Veto), 100 (News 24-Chanakya), and 51-61 (ABP-CVoter).  The SAD-BSP alliance is predicted to get 7-11 seats (India Today-Axis), 5 (Times Now-Veto), 6 (News 24-Chanakya), and 20-25 (ABP-CVoter). The saffron party alliance is predicted to get 1-4 (India Today-Axis), 5 (Times Now-Veto), 1 (News 24-Chanakya), 7-13 (ABP-CVoter).

Predictably the AAP is elated while the Congress rejected the surveys and a stoic BJP thinks it will do much better than what the exit polls predict. Most leaders and analysts cited the woefully off target predictions of exit polls in the 2017 elections. 

Also ReadPunjab Assembly Elections 2022 Congress, SAD and AAP Candidates

Goa: the going gets hard

The exit polls predict a hung assembly in the coastal state of Goa. The India Today-Axis poll gives BJP 14-18 seats and the Cong-GFP alliance 15-20, while 2-5 seats go to the TMC-MGP alliance which can emerge as the kingmaker, while others are expected to get 0-4.

The ABP-CVoter meanwhile gives the BJP 13-17, the Congress alliance 12-16, the TMC alliance 5-9 and others 0-2. 

The Times Now-Veto exit poll gave the Congress 16, the BJP 14, AAP 4 and others 6. 

Newsx-Polstrat predicted that the BJP would get 17 to 19 seats while the Congress would be at 11 to 13 seats. The poll predicted that AAP would get between 1 and 4 seats in the state, and others would get 2 to 7 seats.

A wary Congress party has reportedly asked all its candidates to check-in on Tuesday evening to a hotel in North Goa till the results are out on March 10.

The Congress election in-charge Dinesh Gundu Rao and senior election observer are in Goa reportedly to talk with potential allies. The duo along with alliance partner Vijai Sardesai of the Goa Forward Party are strategising  to ensure they get to the crucial 21-seat mark in 40-seat Assembly.

Also ReadWill Digambar Kamat wait to be CM again on March 10?

And Uttarakhand goes to the BJP

The exit poll predictions for Uttarakhand also looked set to welcome a BJP government. The India Today-Axis poll gives the BJP 36-40 seats, the Congress 20-30, the BSP 2-4 and others 2-5.

The Times Now-Veto poll gave 37 seats to the BJP,  a close 31 to the Congress, 1 seat to AAP and 1 to others.

The ABP-CVoter poll is the only one that predicts a hung assembly with the BJP garnering 26-32, the Congress 32-38, and AAP 0-2, while 3-7 is expected to be won by others.

News24-Chanakya gave a thumping majority for the BJP with 43 seats, the Congress 24 and others 3.

Also ReadDecline in poll percentage in Uttarakhand, UP and Goa points to voter apathy

Manipur tilts more to the right

The BJP seems all set to recapture the 60-member Manipur Assembly with all exit polls predicting a decisive victory for the saffron party.

The India Today-Axis poll gives the party 33-43 seats, thus reducing the Congress to just 4-8 seats, the NPP too is predicted to get the same range, and others are expected to get 6-15 seats.

The ABP-CVoter poll predicts that the saffron party will get 23-27, Congress 12-16, NPP 10-14, and NPF 3-7. 

News 18-Jan Ki Baat predicted that the BJP will secure between 23-28 seats, the Congress between 10-14, the NPP between 7-8, the NPF 5-8, and Others are expected to get about 8-9 seats.

 Finally, the P Marq poll too predicts a BJP victory with 27-31 seats for it, while the Congress is predicted to get 11-17, NPP 6-10, NPF 2-6, and others are expected to get between 3-7.

Also readWomen power calling the shots in Assembly elections

Subhash Rai
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