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How and who will be the next President of India?

by | Apr 21, 2022 | India

If President Ramnath Kovind does not get an extension. How will the next president be elected? Who will be the next President of India? We try to answer some of the questions here.
"Raisina Hill" by Christian Haugen is marked with CC BY 2.0.

The race for the house atop Raisina Hill might not have received prime-time attention yet, but it is on by all indications. Come July, either the present incumbent will continue his stay or somebody, hopefully, by collective choice will not just occupy the 500-room Rashtrapati Bhavan, but also be first citizen of a frayed nation.

If President Ramnath Kovind does not get a second term, speculation has it that Nationalist Congress Party supremo Sharad Pawar is in the reckoning, so is Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. But from the Opposition space, so to speak, the Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati is considered a contender with may pluses. But from the ruling party and alliance’s and natural claimant is Vice President and former BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu.

Total RS & LS MPs votes: 5,59,408 (776 MPs X 708) Total MLAs votes: 5,49,495 Total Electoral College Votes: 10,98,903

Given the complex arithmetic to elect the President of India, despite the BJP’s dominance over the political firmament of the country over past few years, it is not easy for it to push through its choice of candidate. Or is it?

The arithmetic would some what resemble this:

The value of a vote of a member of either houses of Parliament is 708. The NDA has 336 members in the Lok Sabha, which adds up to 2,37,888 votes, while the 121 seats in the Rajya Sabha gives the NDA an additional 85,668 votes. Of the 4,019 MLAs who make of the rest of the electoral college, the NDA has 1,738 members. Since the value of an MLAs vote differs from state to state, getting to the total can be a bit tricky.

Value of vote of UP MLA is 208 Maharastra is 175 Arunachal Pradesh is 8
 

The value of the vote for a state legislatures and Union Territories is arrived at my taking the population of the state (based on Census 1971) divided by the number of MLAs in Legislative Assembly, the quotient then is divided by 1000. Thus, the value of vote of UP MLA is 208, while for Maharastra it is 175. The value of the vote of an MLA in Arunachal Pradesh is 8.

The total value of all MLAs votes is5,49,495

Total Electoral College votes is 10,98,903.

The NDA, after the recently held elections to the five states looks quite well place, but it is still possible that the ruling alliance will have to do some tight-rope walking to ensure the support of long-timing fence-sitters like YSRCP and BJD.

With the NDA  still short of 9,625 for the halfway mark, the vicissitudes of the path to the summit of Raisina Hill still remains intriguing.  

Subhash Rai
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